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We find evidence for a macroeconomic reversal rate related to the substitution effects becoming weaker relative to the income effects in a low interest rate regime. In this regime the effects of monetary policy shocks are either less powerful or reverse sign compared with a normal rate regime. Addressing the endogeneity of slack in Phillips Curves.
Abstract Endogeneity of the labour market slack in reduced-form Phillips Curves PCs is usually addressed either by including proxies for omitted supply shocks, or by using instrumental variables. Cyril Couaillier. Abstract How do banks set their target capital ratio? How do they adjust to reach it?
This paper answers these questions using an original dataset of capital ratio targets directly announced to investors by European banks, materially improving data quality compared to usual estimated implicit target. It provides the following key lessons.
Third, the distance between actual CET1 ratio and the target is a valuable predictor of future balance-sheet adjustment, suggesting that banks actively drive their capital ratios toward their announced targets, through capital accumulation and portfolio rebalancing.
Fourth, this adjustment occurs both above and below targets, but banks below target adjust faster, suggesting stronger pressure. Central Bank Digital Currency: functional scope, pricing and controls. Abstract Even before their deployment in major economies, one of the concerns that has been voiced about central bank digital currency CBDC is that it might be too successful and lead to bank disintermediation, which could intensify further in the case of a banking crisis.
Some also argue that CBDC might crowd out private payment solutions beyond what would be desirable from the perspective of the comparative advantages of private and public sector money. This paper discusses success factors for CBDC and how to avoid the risk of crowding out. After examining ways to prevent excessive use as a store of value, the study emphasises the importance of the functional scope of CBDC for the payment functions of money.
The paper also recalls the risks that use could be too low if functional scope, convenience or reachability are unattractive for users. Finding an adequate functional scope — neither too broad to crowd out private sector solutions, nor too narrow to be of limited use — is challenging in an industry with network effects, like payments. The role of the incentives offered to private sector service providers involved in distributing, using and processing CBDC banks, wallet providers, merchants, payment processors, acquirers, etc.
Markups and inflation cyclicality in the euro area. Abstract Price inflation in the euro area has been stable and low since the Global Financial Crisis, despite notable changes in output and unemployment. We show that an increasing share of high markup firms is part of the explanation of why inflation remained stubbornly stable and low in the euro area over the past two decades. For this purpose, we exploit a rich firm-level database to show that over the period — the aggregate markup in the euro area has been on the rise, mainly on account of a reallocation towards high-markup firms.
We document significant heterogeneity in markups across sectors and countries and, by linking these markup developments to the evolution of sectoral level producer and consumer price inflation, we find that i inflation in high-markup sectors tends to be less volatile than in low-markup sectors and ii inflation in high-markup sectors responds significantly less to oil supply, global demand and euro area monetary policy shocks.
Nowcasting euro area GDP with news sentiment: a tale of two crises. Abstract This paper shows that newspaper articles contain timely economic signals that can materially improve nowcasts of real GDP growth for the euro area. Daily sentiment metrics are created from these news articles and we assess their value for nowcasting.
The choice of the sentiment measure matters when tracking economic shocks such as the Great Recession and the Great Lockdown. Quantitative easing and corporate innovation. Abstract To what extent can Quantitative Easing impact productivity growth? The evidence further suggests that by subsidizing the cost of debt, corporate bond purchases by the central bank stimulate innovation through a wealth transfer to innovative companies with low debt levels, rather than by supporting credit constrained firms.
This paper starts by documenting why climate change matters for monetary policy: it impacts the economic variables relevant to setting the monetary policy stance, it interacts with fiscal and structural responses and it can generate dislocations in financial markets, which are impossible for monetary policy to ignore. Next, we survey several possible ways central banks can respond to climate change.
These range from protective actions to more proactive measures aimed at mitigating climate change and supporting green finance and the transition to sustainable growth. We also discuss the constraints and trade-offs faced by central banks as they respond to climate risks.
Finally, focusing on the specific challenges faced by inflation-targeting central banks, we consider how certain design features of this regime might interact with, and evolve in response to, the climate challenge. Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises: availability of finance improved amid increase in turnover.
Johannes Breckenfelder Victoria Ivashina. Investors moved out of risky assets and into safe assets. The mutual fund sector in particular was hit by unprecedented investor redemptions and faced fire sale pressure as a result. Typically, banks that engage in securities trading — dealer banks — absorb such bond sales, supporting market liquidity, but regulation may limit their ability to do so by requiring them to maintain a certain leverage ratio.
In recent research, we analyse the role of bank leverage constraints as an amplifier of bond market illiquidity during the March crisis. Our analysis links mutual funds bond holdings to dealer banks and their leverage constraints. We document that mutual funds that were holding more bonds exposed to dealer bank constraints in their portfolio faced bigger selling pressure in March We provide supplementary evidence that bank leverage constraints affect bond liquidity, using the introduction of leverage ratio regulation in the euro area.
Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach. Abstract We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over — Most nonlin-ear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley values, uncovering nonlinear relationships between the predic-tors and crisis risk.
Throughout, the most important predictors are credit growth and the slope of the yield curve, both domestically and globally. A flat or inverted yield curve is of most concern when nominal interest rates are low and credit growth is high. What goes around comes around: How large are spillbacks from US monetary policy? Abstract We quantify spillbacks from US monetary policy based on structural scenario analysis and minimum relative entropy methods applied in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model estimated on data for the time period from to We find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the overall slowdown in domestic real activity in response to a contractionary US monetary policy shock.
Net trade does not contribute to spillbacks because US monetary policy affects exports and imports similarly. Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality. Abstract We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. Financial Stability Review, November Statistical data. ECB Financial Stability Review shows pandemic risks eased with recovery but vulnerabilities ahead building up.
Sustainability of recent euro area investment banking strength and debt capital market intermediation. In the euro area, however, the most significant volume increase has come from debt instruments, which have long been the preferred source of corporate funding in the euro area ahead of equity.
Against this background, this box considers the recent developments in investment banking of euro area banks in relation to some of the prior trends and considers how sustainable the recent strength might be. Lessons learned from initial margin calls during the March market turmoil. Abstract This box establishes stylised facts about the significant increase in initial margin IM in the euro area derivatives market during the March market turmoil. First, it shows that the increase was concentrated almost entirely in centrally cleared derivatives and driven mainly by equity, credit and interest rate portfolios.
Second, by comparing static portfolios with those where portfolio repositioning took place, the IM increase is decomposed into i changes attributable to the CCP model sensitivity to market volatility, and ii changes attributable to portfolio repositioning by investors. For centrally cleared interest rate and credit derivatives where this method is applicable , CCP model sensitivity to market volatility is found to be a key driver of the IM increase. The supervisory and regulatory framework governing the liquidity management of market participants, and in particular that of some non-bank financial intermediaries, should also be strengthened.
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